Fombonne's autism research is dangerously inaccurate

[john]

http://www.news-medical.net/?id=18809

Fombonne's autism research is dangerously inaccurate
Medical Studies/Trials
Published: Tuesday, 11-Jul-2006



Dr. Eric Fombonne's new Quebec study will soon be published in the July
2006 issue of Pediatrics. Fombonne, a thimerosal litigation expert witness
on behalf of various pharmaceutical companies, will reportedly state that
it is "very clear" there is no relationship between mercury-based
thimerosal and the onset of autism.

According to the research group SafeMinds, Fombonne's research is
dangerously inaccurate:

* The study looked at 27,749 students in grades kindergarten through
12th grade in a Montreal school district and found 187 cases of autism.
* The vast majority of these cases (more than 90%) were born in years
in which thimerosal vaccines were widely used for infants in Quebec, as
they were in the US.
* Only a tiny fraction of the autism students were born when
thimerosal-free DTP and Hib vaccines were given, and these students may
have been exposed to thimerosal from the Hepatitis B vaccine newly
recommended for infants of foreign-born parents, which made up over one
fourth of the greater Montreal population.
* Dr. Fombonne wrongfully claims that large-population studies in the
United States, England and Denmark also disprove a link between mercury and
autism.
* Although multiple respected researchers state otherwise, Dr. Fombonne
maintains the radical conclusion "there is no autism epidemic."
* He conveniently ignores the vast body of scientific evidence, which
has shown that environmental factors such as mercury may have caused the
increased number of autism diagnoses in the US and other countries.
* Dr. Fombonne's actions have historically been in the best interest of
various pharmaceutical companies, not families with autism. Fombonne has
also declared himself an expert witness in thimerosal-related litigation.

SafeMinds states, "Thimerosal is a serious poison that is harmful via
inhalation, ingestion or contact with skin. Furthermore,
thimerosal-containing vaccines elevate mercury levels in the body to a
level where adverse neurological outcomes are known to occur. It is
irresponsible for any pediatric doctor to justify injecting our children
with mercury.

"The prevalence of all autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has risen to 1 in
166 children in the past 20 years. Several independent federal agencies and
respected scientists and researchers have received federal funds to
investigate the autism epidemic and the biological plausibility of a link
between mercury and ASDs. Multiple studies have indicated that there is a
connection between childhood vaccines containing thimerosal and the
incidence of autism. No conclusions have been made rejecting a link between
mercury and autism."

The National Autism Association (NAA), along with multiple advocacy groups
and researchers, hope that Fombonne's conflicts of interest will be
disclosed in Pediatrics. "These significantly weak conclusions certainly
work to Dr. Fombonne's benefit. It is only appropriate that his partnership
with pharmaceutical companies be revealed," says Claire Bothwell, Board
Chair of NAA.

For more information, visit www.nationalautism.org or www.safeminds.org.

http://www.nationalautismassociation.org

[cathyb]

john wrote:

crap that he also wrote just a couple of days ago, and that was
comprehensively rebutted. It should be noted that john failed to reply
to the following.

I hope Bryan won't mind if I reproduce his exhaustive analysis here:

"john wrote:


Yet another series of lies about this study. Here is the full text
link:

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/118/1/e139?max...



Now to break down this commentary point-by-point:



> - The study looked at 27,749 students in grades kindergarten
> through 12th grade in a Montreal school district and found 187 cases of
> autism.


Correct on the first number, wrong on the second. Only 180 children
(rate of 64.9/10,000) were identified. Note that this is a relatively
normal rate in western nations.


> - The vast majority of these cases (more than 90%) were born in
> years in which thimerosal vaccines were widely used for infants in Quebec,
> as they were in the US.


This is false. Data was collected from students in a school board
which
provides education for kindergarten through grade 11, and monitored
students born from 1987 through 1998 (10 years). The exact % of people

in each age group was not published, but given that the data was
collected from a school board it is safe to assume that there is
approximately an equal number of people per grade. All mercury was
removed from vaccines during 1995, meaning that 3 years of students who

didn't receive mercury were included. That works out to ~66% of people

with mercury, 33% without.

It's also worth noting that all calculations were done using rate per
10,000 people, which means that corrections were made for the
differences in population size.



> - Only a tiny fraction of the autism students were born when
> thimerosal-free DTP and Hib vaccines were given, and these students may have
> been exposed to thimerosal from the Hepatitis B vaccine newly recommended
> for infants of foreign-born parents, which made up over one fourth of the
> greater Montreal population.


As you can see in the methods section of the paper this was taken into
account. In addition, assuming 100% of the people in question got the
HepB vaccine, that still doesn't explain the results. If mercury was
the cause of autism there should have been a decrease in autistic rates

among the 75% of people not receiving the HepB vaccine. As such, in
that 75% of the population we should have seen a decrease in autism
rates. That did not occur; rather, autism went up.

Furthermore, the numbers don't hold out. Only 4.1% of Quebecers have
received the full HepB vaccination schedule, and 10% have received at
least one dose. Far from the 25% claimed by safe minds:


http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/ccdr-rmtc/96vol22/dr2221ea.html



> - Dr. Fombonne wrongfully claims that large-population studies in
> the United States, England and Denmark also disprove a link between mercury
> and autism.


Which is true, and he provides the reference to support his claim.
Here's a couple of them:

Andrews N, Miller E, Grant A, Stowe J, Osborne V, Taylor B.
Thimerosal exposure in infants and developmental disorders: a
retrospective cohort study in the United kingdom does not support a
causal association. Pediatrics. 2004;114 :584 -591


Heron J, Golding J. Thimerosal exposure in infants and developmental
disorders: a prospective cohort study in the United kingdom does not
support a causal association. Pediatrics. 2004;114 :577 -583


Hviid A, Stellfeld M, Wohlfahrt J, Melbye M. Association between
thimerosal-containing vaccine and autism. JAMA. 2003;290 :1763 -1766


Verstraeten T, Davis RL, DeStefano F, et al. Safety of
thimerosal-containing vaccines: a two-phased study of computerized
health maintenance organization databases. Pediatrics. 2003;112 :1039
-1048


Madsen KM, Lauritsen MB, Pedersen CB, et al. Thimerosal and the
occurrence of autism: negative ecological evidence from Danish
population-based data. Pediatrics. 2003;112 :604 -606


Stehr-Green P, Tull P, Stellfeld M, Mortenson PB, Simpson D. Autism
and thimerosal-containing vaccines: lack of consistent evidence for an
association. Am J Prev Med. 2003;25 :101 -106


Jick H, Kaye JA. Autism and DPT vaccination in the United Kingdom. N
Engl J Med. 2004;350 :2722 -2723



> - Although multiple respected researchers state otherwise, Dr.
> Fombonne maintains the radical conclusion "there is no autism epidemic."


I notice they were unable to name a single of these "respected
researchers". Fombonne, on the other had, referenced several studies
to
support his claim:

Gernsbacher MA, Dawson M, Goldsmith HH. Three reasons not to believe
in an autism epidemic. Curr Dir Psychol Sci. 2005;14 :55 -58


Kirby D. Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines and the Autism
Epidemic-A Medical Controversy. New York, NY: St. Martin's Press;
2005



> - He conveniently ignores the vast body of scientific evidence,
> which has shown that environmental factors such as mercury may have caused
> the increased number of autism diagnoses in the US and other countries.


As he pointed out in his study, the scientific literature disagrees.
He
cited at least six studies which show the opposite - that there is no
link. He did reference one of the studies which originally suggested
the link, and also provided links to the studies which demonstrated
that
the original study was incorrect.

And once again, I notice that your source failed to reference any
studies supporting their position. Just uncited claims.



> - Dr. Fombonne's actions have historically been in the best
> interest of various pharmaceutical companies, not families with autism.
> Fombonne has also declared himself an expert witness in thimerosal-related
> litigation.


Point being? He IS an expert; he studies the epidemiology of autism.
He is trained as an epidemiologist. He works in one of the most
prestigious and well regarded autism research groups in Canada. I'm
not
exactly sure what more you need to be an expert, but his educational
credentials alone would be enough for most people. As for "in the
interest of pharma", that is a matter of opinion. Afterall, his study
suggests that there is no reason for governments to spend the extra
money on mercury-free vaccines (and they cost a lot more). That's less

money in the pockets of pharma.


> SafeMinds states, "Thimerosal is a serious poison that is harmful via
> inhalation, ingestion or contact with skin. Furthermore,
> thimerosal-containing vaccines elevate mercury levels in the body to a level
> where adverse neurological outcomes are known to occur. It is irresponsible
> for any pediatric doctor to justify injecting our children with mercury.


Luckily, for the paranoids at safe minds, mercury has been removed from

nearly all childhood vaccines. A such their statement that
"thimerosal-containing vaccines elevate mercury levels in the body to a

level where adverse neurological outcomes are known to occur" is not
correct; children no longer receive those levels of mercury.

Not that their statement is correct to start with; the levels hit by
vaccination were never shown to cause neural disease in the duration
they are in the brain. Only much higher concentrations caused
detectable damage over an exposure period equivalent to those
experienced during vaccination. And even then, it required direct
injection into the brain.



> "The prevalence of all autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has risen to 1 in
> 166 children in the past 20 years.


Mostly due to changes is diagnostic criteria and reporting:

Fombonne E. Epidemiological studies of autism and pervasive
developmental disorders. In: Volkmar F, ed. Handbook of Autism and
Pervasive Developmental Disorders. 3rd ed. New York, NY: Wiley & Sons;
2005:42-69


Gernsbacher MA, Dawson M, Goldsmith HH. Three reasons not to believe

in an autism epidemic. Curr Dir Psychol Sci. 2005;14 :55 -58


Barbaresi WJ, Katusic SK, Colligan RC, Weaver AL, Jacobsen SJ. The
incidence of autism in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1976-1997: results
from a population-based study. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2005;159 :37
-44


Gurney JG, Fritz MS, Ness KK, Sievers P, Newschaffer CJ, Shapiro EG.
Analysis of prevalence trends of autism spectrum disorder in Minnesota.

Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2003;157 :622-627


Newschaffer CJ, Falb MD, Gurney JG. National autism prevalence trends

from United States special education data. Pediatrics. 2005;115 (3).


And regardless of the criticisms they may level at Fombonne, they still

haven't explained away the lack of a decrease in autism rates after
mercury was removed form all childhood vaccines in Quebec. They can
whine about perceived flaws in the methodology, and question Fombonne's

credential all they want. But that data came from public sources. It
is easily verified. And yet they couldn't even provide one iota of
evidence the DATA is wrong. All they could do is slander the author.


Bryan "

[Mark Probert]

john wrote:
> http://www.news-medical.net/?id=18809
>
> Fombonne's autism research is dangerously inaccurate
> Medical Studies/Trials
> Published: Tuesday, 11-Jul-2006
>
>
>
> Dr. Eric Fombonne's new Quebec study will soon be published in the July
> 2006 issue of Pediatrics. Fombonne, a thimerosal litigation expert witness
> on behalf of various pharmaceutical companies, will reportedly state that
> it is "very clear" there is no relationship between mercury-based
> thimerosal and the onset of autism.
>
> According to the research group SafeMinds, Fombonne's research is
> dangerously inaccurate:
>
> * The study looked at 27,749 students in grades kindergarten through
> 12th grade in a Montreal school district and found 187 cases of autism.
> * The vast majority of these cases (more than 90%) were born in years
> in which thimerosal vaccines were widely used for infants in Quebec, as
> they were in the US.
> * Only a tiny fraction of the autism students were born when
> thimerosal-free DTP and Hib vaccines were given, and these students may
> have been exposed to thimerosal from the Hepatitis B vaccine newly
> recommended for infants of foreign-born parents, which made up over one
> fourth of the greater Montreal population.
> * Dr. Fombonne wrongfully claims that large-population studies in the
> United States, England and Denmark also disprove a link between mercury and
> autism.
> * Although multiple respected researchers state otherwise, Dr. Fombonne
> maintains the radical conclusion "there is no autism epidemic."
> * He conveniently ignores the vast body of scientific evidence, which
> has shown that environmental factors such as mercury may have caused the
> increased number of autism diagnoses in the US and other countries.
> * Dr. Fombonne's actions have historically been in the best interest of
> various pharmaceutical companies, not families with autism. Fombonne has
> also declared himself an expert witness in thimerosal-related litigation.
>
> SafeMinds states, "Thimerosal is a serious poison that is harmful via
> inhalation, ingestion or contact with skin. Furthermore,
> thimerosal-containing vaccines elevate mercury levels in the body to a
> level where adverse neurological outcomes are known to occur. It is
> irresponsible for any pediatric doctor to justify injecting our children
> with mercury.
>
> "The prevalence of all autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has risen to 1 in
> 166 children in the past 20 years. Several independent federal agencies and
> respected scientists and researchers have received federal funds to
> investigate the autism epidemic and the biological plausibility of a link
> between mercury and ASDs. Multiple studies have indicated that there is a
> connection between childhood vaccines containing thimerosal and the
> incidence of autism. No conclusions have been made rejecting a link between
> mercury and autism."
>
> The National Autism Association (NAA), along with multiple advocacy groups
> and researchers, hope that Fombonne's conflicts of interest will be
> disclosed in Pediatrics. "These significantly weak conclusions certainly
> work to Dr. Fombonne's benefit. It is only appropriate that his partnership
> with pharmaceutical companies be revealed," says Claire Bothwell, Board
> Chair of NAA.
>
> For more information, visit www.nationalautism.org or www.safeminds.org.
>
> http://www.nationalautismassociation.org

Written by those with a vested interest in the mythical link.

[Bryan Heit]

cathyb wrote:
> john wrote:
>
> crap that he also wrote just a couple of days ago, and that was
> comprehensively rebutted. It should be noted that john failed to reply
> to the following.
>
> I hope Bryan won't mind if I reproduce his exhaustive analysis here:

Not at all. It saves me from doing it.

One has to wonder why it is that John thinks if he keeps saying the same
thing over and over again that it'll somehow become true. My
god-daughter used to do that; figured out it didn't work when she was
about 7...

Bryan

[Jan Drew]

"Mark Probert" > wrote in message
...
> john wrote:
>> http://www.news-medical.net/?id=18809
>>
>> Fombonne's autism research is dangerously inaccurate
>> Medical Studies/Trials
>> Published: Tuesday, 11-Jul-2006
>>
>>
>>
>> Dr. Eric Fombonne's new Quebec study will soon be published in the July
>> 2006 issue of Pediatrics. Fombonne, a thimerosal litigation expert
>> witness
>> on behalf of various pharmaceutical companies, will reportedly state that
>> it is "very clear" there is no relationship between mercury-based
>> thimerosal and the onset of autism.
>>
>> According to the research group SafeMinds, Fombonne's research is
>> dangerously inaccurate:
>>
>> * The study looked at 27,749 students in grades kindergarten through
>> 12th grade in a Montreal school district and found 187 cases of autism.
>> * The vast majority of these cases (more than 90%) were born in years
>> in which thimerosal vaccines were widely used for infants in Quebec, as
>> they were in the US.
>> * Only a tiny fraction of the autism students were born when
>> thimerosal-free DTP and Hib vaccines were given, and these students may
>> have been exposed to thimerosal from the Hepatitis B vaccine newly
>> recommended for infants of foreign-born parents, which made up over one
>> fourth of the greater Montreal population.
>> * Dr. Fombonne wrongfully claims that large-population studies in the
>> United States, England and Denmark also disprove a link between mercury
>> and
>> autism.
>> * Although multiple respected researchers state otherwise, Dr.
>> Fombonne
>> maintains the radical conclusion "there is no autism epidemic."
>> * He conveniently ignores the vast body of scientific evidence, which
>> has shown that environmental factors such as mercury may have caused the
>> increased number of autism diagnoses in the US and other countries.
>> * Dr. Fombonne's actions have historically been in the best interest
>> of
>> various pharmaceutical companies, not families with autism. Fombonne has
>> also declared himself an expert witness in thimerosal-related litigation.
>>
>> SafeMinds states, "Thimerosal is a serious poison that is harmful via
>> inhalation, ingestion or contact with skin. Furthermore,
>> thimerosal-containing vaccines elevate mercury levels in the body to a
>> level where adverse neurological outcomes are known to occur. It is
>> irresponsible for any pediatric doctor to justify injecting our children
>> with mercury.
>>
>> "The prevalence of all autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has risen to 1 in
>> 166 children in the past 20 years. Several independent federal agencies
>> and
>> respected scientists and researchers have received federal funds to
>> investigate the autism epidemic and the biological plausibility of a link
>> between mercury and ASDs. Multiple studies have indicated that there is a
>> connection between childhood vaccines containing thimerosal and the
>> incidence of autism. No conclusions have been made rejecting a link
>> between
>> mercury and autism."
>>
>> The National Autism Association (NAA), along with multiple advocacy
>> groups
>> and researchers, hope that Fombonne's conflicts of interest will be
>> disclosed in Pediatrics. "These significantly weak conclusions certainly
>> work to Dr. Fombonne's benefit. It is only appropriate that his
>> partnership
>> with pharmaceutical companies be revealed," says Claire Bothwell, Board
>> Chair of NAA.
>>
>> For more information, visit www.nationalautism.org or www.safeminds.org.
>>
>> http://www.nationalautismassociation.org
>
> Written by those with a vested interest in the mythical link.

Typical. Deal with the TRUTH.

[HCN]

"Mark Probert" > wrote in message
...
> john wrote:
....>> For more information, visit www.nationalautism.org or
www.safeminds.org.
>>
>> http://www.nationalautismassociation.org
>
> Written by those with a vested interest in the mythical link.

I noticed that the Pediatrics Journal has been giving free access to several
papers online. I suspect it is so people can read them and see what kind of
misinterpreting the ilk of the above websites have been doing. Kind of like
what is mentioned here:
http://www.pathguy.com/antiimmu.htm

Okay, for those who want to think for themselves and read the actual paper
without the editoralizing from others here it is:
http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/118/1/e139

[Mark Probert]

Bryan Heit wrote:
> cathyb wrote:
>> john wrote:
>>
>> crap that he also wrote just a couple of days ago, and that was
>> comprehensively rebutted. It should be noted that john failed to reply
>> to the following.
>>
>> I hope Bryan won't mind if I reproduce his exhaustive analysis here:
>
> Not at all. It saves me from doing it.
>
> One has to wonder why it is that John thinks if he keeps saying the same
> thing over and over again that it'll somehow become true.

Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth
in the masses, or some such thing?

My
> god-daughter used to do that; figured out it didn't work when she was
> about 7...

[Bryan Heit]

Mark Probert wrote:
> Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth
> in the masses, or some such thing?

Sounds like something he'd say. Can't confirm it though; I'm not
exactly what you would call "familiar" with Nazi literature.

Bryan

[Jan Drew]

"Mark Probert" > wrote in message
...
> Bryan Heit wrote:
>> cathyb wrote:
>>> john wrote:
>>>
>>> crap that he also wrote just a couple of days ago, and that was
>>> comprehensively rebutted. It should be noted that john failed to reply
>>> to the following.
>>>
>>> I hope Bryan won't mind if I reproduce his exhaustive analysis here:
>>
>> Not at all. It saves me from doing it.
>>
>> One has to wonder why it is that John thinks if he keeps saying the same
>> thing over and over again that it'll somehow become true.
>
> Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth in
> the masses, or some such thing?

"All truth passes through 3 stages.

First, it is ridiculed.

Second, it is violently opposed.

Third, it is accepted as being self-evident".
Shopenhauer

A truth's initial commotion is directly proportional to how deeply the lie
>was believed.When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to
>the
>masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its
>speaker, a raving lunatic. -Dresden James
>
> My
>> god-daughter used to do that; figured out it didn't work when she was
>> about 7...

[john]

"Bryan Heit" > wrote in message
...
> Mark Probert wrote:
>> Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth in
>> the masses, or some such thing?
>
> Sounds like something he'd say. Can't confirm it though; I'm not exactly
> what you would call "familiar" with Nazi literature.
>
> Bryan

http://www.whale.to/vaccine/repetition.html

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually
come to believe it..............The lie can be maintained only for such time
as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or
military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the
State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the
mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest
enemy of the State." --- Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda,
1933-1945

He was spot on, they couldn't get away with all their vaccine lies otherwise
http://www.whale.to/vaccines/ploy5.html

[David Wright]

In article >,
john > wrote:
>
>"Bryan Heit" > wrote in message
...
>> Mark Probert wrote:
>>> Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth in
>>> the masses, or some such thing?
>>
>> Sounds like something he'd say. Can't confirm it though; I'm not exactly
>> what you would call "familiar" with Nazi literature.
>>
>> Bryan
>
>http://www.whale.to/vaccine/repetition.html
>
>"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually
>come to believe it..............The lie can be maintained only for such time
>as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or
>military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the
>State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the
>mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest
>enemy of the State." --- Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda,
>1933-1945
>
>He was spot on, they couldn't get away with all their vaccine lies otherwise
>http://www.whale.to/vaccines/ploy5.html

john, however, fails to notice that he himself is one of the most
egregious users of the "endless repetition" strategy. I guess his
lies aren't big enough, though, because he's found very few believers,
and the ones he does have are not the kind of people you'd want to
hang around with.

-- David Wright :: alphabeta at prodigy.net
These are my opinions only, but they're almost always correct.
"If you can't say something nice, then sit next to me."
-- Alice Roosevelt Longworth

[Bryan Heit]

Jan Drew wrote:
> "All truth passes through 3 stages.
>
> First, it is ridiculed.
>
> Second, it is violently opposed.
>
> Third, it is accepted as being self-evident".
> Shopenhauer

But things which are not true only make stages 1&2. Which is where you
and Joh have been stuck for a while...

Bryan

[Mark Probert]

Bryan Heit wrote:
> Mark Probert wrote:
>> Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth
>> in the masses, or some such thing?
>
> Sounds like something he'd say. Can't confirm it though; I'm not
> exactly what you would call "familiar" with Nazi literature.

I would not call it literature.

I keep an eye on hate groups for an organization I belong to.

[Mark Probert]

john wrote:
> "Bryan Heit" > wrote in message
> ...
>> Mark Probert wrote:
>>> Didn't Goebbels say that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth in
>>> the masses, or some such thing?
>> Sounds like something he'd say. Can't confirm it though; I'm not exactly
>> what you would call "familiar" with Nazi literature.
>>
>> Bryan
>
> http://www.whale.to/vaccine/repetition.html
>
> "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually
> come to believe it..............The lie can be maintained only for such time
> as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or
> military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the
> State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the
> mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest
> enemy of the State." --- Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda,
> 1933-1945
>
> He was spot on, they couldn't get away with all their vaccine lies otherwise
> http://www.whale.to/vaccines/ploy5.html

Goebbels is one of John's heroes. John has taken his admonition to
heart, and made it his way of life.

[Jan Drew]

"Bryan Heit" > wrote in message
...
> Jan Drew wrote:
>> "All truth passes through 3 stages.
>>
>> First, it is ridiculed.
>>
>> Second, it is violently opposed.
>>
>> Third, it is accepted as being self-evident".
>> Shopenhauer
>
> But things which are not true only make stages 1&2.
Which is where you
> and Joh have been stuck for a while...
>
> Bryan

You are not very bright, Byran.

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Incorrect_predictions
Sourced
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a.. "Democracy will be dead by 1950." - John Langdon-Davies, A Short
History of The Future, 1936.
a.. "With over fifteen types of foreign cars already on sale here, the
Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big share of the market
for itself." - Business Week, August 2, 1968.
[edit]
Attributed
[edit]
Technology
Technology refers to tools, machines, and other tangible devices that are
used by humans for certain processes.

[edit]
Railroads
a.. "Dear Mr. President: The canal system of this country is being
threatened by a new form of transportation known as 'railroads' ... As you
may well know, Mr. President, 'railroad' carriages are pulled at the
enormous speed of 15 miles per hour by 'engines' which, in addition to
endangering life and limb of passengers, roar and snort their way through
the countryside, setting fire to crops, scaring the livestock and
frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended that
people should travel at such breakneck speed." - Martin Van Buren, Governor
of New York, 1865(?).
a.. "Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable
to breathe, would die of asphyxia." - Dr Dionysius Lardner (1793-1859),
professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College London.
[edit]
Light bulb
a.. "... good enough for our transatlantic friends ... but unworthy of the
attention of practical or scientific men." - British Parliamentary
Committee, referring to Edison's light bulb, 1878.
a.. "Such startling announcements as these should be deprecated as being
unworthy of science and mischievious to its true progress." - Sir William
Siemens, on Edison's light bulb, 1880.
a.. "Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a
conspicuous failure." - Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of
Technology, on Edison's light bulb, 1880.
[edit]
Telephone, telegraph
a.. "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -
A memo at Western Union, 1878 (or 1876).
a.. "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have
plenty of messenger boys." - Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British
Post Office, 1878.
a.. "It's a great invention but who would want to use it anyway?" -
Rutherford B. Hayes, U.S. President, after a demonstration of Alexander
Bell's telephone, 1877.
a.. "A man has been arrested in New York for attempting to extort funds
from ignorant and superstitious people by exhibiting a device which he says
will convey the human voice any distance over metallic wires so that it will
be heard by the listener at the other end. He calls this instrument a
telephone. Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the
human voice over wires." - News item in a New York newspaper, 1868.
a.. "Transmission of documents via telephone wires is possible in
principle, but the apparatus required is so expensive that it will never
become a practical proposition." - Dennis Gabor, British physicist and
author of Inventing the Future, 1962.
[edit]
Automobiles
a.. "The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty-a
fad." - The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's
lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903.
a.. "The ordinary "horseless carriage" is at present a luxury for the
wealthy; and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will
never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle." - Literary
Digest, 1899.
[edit]
Airplanes
a.. "Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical (sic) and
insignificant, if not utterly impossible." - Simon Newcomb; The Wright
Brothers flew at Kittyhawk 18 months later. Newcomb was not impressed.
a.. "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin,
British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society,
1895.
a.. "It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which
two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying
machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere." -
Thomas Edison, American inventor, 1895.
a.. "Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." - Marechal
Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre, 1904.
a.. "There will never be a bigger plane built." - A Boeing engineer, after
the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people.
[edit]
Radio
a.. "Radio has no future." - Lord Kelvin, Scottish mathematician and
physicist, former president of the Royal Society, 1897.
a.. "Lee DeForest has said in many newspapers and over his signature that
it would be possible to transmit the human voice across the Atlantic before
many years. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements,
the misguided public ... has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company
...." - a U.S. District Attorney, prosecuting American inventor Lee DeForest
for selling stock fraudulently through the mail for his Radio Telephone
Company in 1913.
a.. "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would
pay for a message sent to no one in particular?" - Associates of David
Sarnoff responding to the latter's call for investment in the radio in 1921.
[edit]
Film and film technology
a.. "The cinema is little more than a fad. It's canned drama. What
audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage." - Charlie
Chaplin, actor, producer, director, and studio founder, 1916.
a.. "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" - H. M. Warner, co-founder
of Warner Brothers, 1927.
[edit]
Rockets
a.. "That Professor Goddard with his 'chair' in Clark College and the
countenancing of the Smithsonian Institution does not know the relation of
action to reaction, and of the need to have something better than a vacuum
against which to react-to say that would be absurd. Of course, he only seems
to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." - 1921 New York
Times editorial about Robert Goddard's breakthrough work on rockets. The
remark was retracted in the July 17, 1969 issue, in a humorous editorial.
This was just prior to the historic moon landing of Neil Armstrong, so of
course Goddard's theory of rockets had been proven correct after all.
a.. "A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere." - New
York Times, 1936.
a.. "... too far-fetched to be considered." - Editor of Scientific
American, in a letter to Robert Goddard about Goddard's idea of a
rocket-accelerated airplane bomb, 1940 (German V2 missiles came down on
London 3 years later).
a.. "We stand on the threshold of rocket mail." - U.S. postmaster general
Arthur Summerfield, in 1959.
[edit]
Television
a.. "While theoretically and technically television may be feasible,
commercially and financially it is an impossibility, a development of which
we need waste little time dreaming." - Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer
and inventor of the vacuum tube, 1926.
a.. "Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring
at a plywood box every night." - Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century
Fox, 1946.
a.. "Television won't last. It's a flash in the pan." - Mary Somerville,
pioneer of radio educational broadcasts, 1948.
[edit]
Atomic/nuclear power
a.. "There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom." -
Robert Millikan, American physicist and Nobel Prize winner, 1923.
a.. "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever
be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at
will." - Albert Einstein, 1932.
a.. "The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor
kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation
of these atoms is talking moonshine." - Ernest Rutherford, shortly after
splitting the atom for the first time.
a.. "Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it
is unlikely to produce anything very much more dangerous." - Winston
Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, then soon-to-be British Prime
Minister, 1939.
a.. "That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done [research on]... The
bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives." - Admiral
William Leahy, U.S. Admiral working in the U.S. Atomic Bomb Project,
advising President Truman on atomic weaponry, 1944.
a.. "The basic questions of design, material and shielding, in combining a
nuclear reactor with a home boiler and cooling unit, no longer are
problems... The system would heat and cool a home, provide unlimited
household hot water, and melt the snow from sidewalks and driveways. All
that could be done for six years on a single charge of fissionable material
costing about $300." - Robert Ferry, executive of the U.S. Institute of
Boiler and Radiator Manufacturers, 1955.
a.. "Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10
years." - Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in
the New York Times in 1955.
[edit]
Computers
a.. "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked
with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad
that won't last out the year." - The editor in charge of business books for
Prentice Hall, 1957.
a.. "[By 1985], machines [computers] will be capable of doing any work Man
can do." - Herbert A. Simon, of Carnegie Mellon University, one of the
founders of the field of artificial intelligence - speaking in 1965.
a.. "But what... is it good for?" - IBM executive Robert Lloyd, speaking
in 1968 about the microprocessor, the heart of today's computers.
a.. "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken
Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corportation
(DEC), maker of big business minicomputers, arguing against the PC in 1977.
[edit]
Space travel
a.. "To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the
controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make
scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth - all
that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say
that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future
advances." - Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum
tube, in 1926
a.. "Space travel is utter bilge." - Richard Van Der Riet Woolley, upon
assuming the post of Astronomer Royal (UK) in 1956.
a.. "Space travel is bunk." - Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal
(UK), 1957 (two weeks later Sputnik orbited the Earth).
a.. "There is practically no chance communications space satellites will
be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service
inside the United States." - T. Craven, FCC Commissioner (USA), in 1961 (the
first commercial communications satellite went into service in 1965).
[edit]
Miscellaneous technology
a.. "What, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents
by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the
time to listen to such nonsense." - Napoleon Bonaparte, when told of Robert
Fulton's steamboat, 1800s.
a.. "The phonograph has no commercial value at all." - Thomas Edison,
American inventor, 1880s.
a.. "X-rays will prove to be a hoax." - Lord Kelvin, President of the
Royal Society, 1883.
a.. "Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time.
Nobody will use it, ever." - Thomas Edison, American inventor, 1889 (Edison
often ridiculed the arguments of competitor George Westinghouse for AC
power).
a.. "I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of
submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea." -
H.G. Wells, British novelist, in 1901.
a.. "Caterpillar landships are idiotic and useless. Those officers and men
are wasting their time and are not pulling their proper weight in the
war." - Fourth Lord of the British Admiralty, 1915.
a.. "The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is
absurd. It is little short of treasonous." - Comment of Aide-de-camp to
Field Marshal Haig, at tank demonstration, 1916.
a.. "Very interesting Whittle, my boy, but it will never work." -
Cambridge Aeronautics Professor, when shown Frank Whittle's plan for the jet
engine.
a.. "The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most." -
IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market
large enough to justify production, 1959.
a.. "If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The
literature was full of examples that said 'you can't do this'." - Spencer
Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3M "Post-It"
Notepads.
[edit]
Science, medicine, and health
Science in this case refers to any of the diverse scientific fields of
study, medicine refers to the scientific study of the body and how it
functions, and health refers to the study of how to keep the body
functioning well.

a.. "I would sooner believe that two Yankee professors lied, than that
stones fell from the sky." - Thomas Jefferson, U.S. President, on hearing
reports of meteorites, 1790s(?).
a.. "The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go
on seeking it...knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be
associated in the consciousness of the patient." - Dr. Alfred Velpeau,
French surgeon, 1839.
a.. "Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." - Pierre
Pachet, British surgeon and Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.
a.. "The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the
intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon" - Sir John Eric Ericksen, British
surgeon, appointed Surgeon Extraordinary to Queen Victoria, 1873.
a.. "We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about
astronomy." - Simon Newcomb, Canadian-born American astronomer, 1888.
a.. "The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science
have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the
possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries
is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be looked for in the
sixth place of decimals." - Albert. A. Michelson, German-born American
physicist, 1894.
a.. "There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now; All that
remains is more and more precise measurement." - Lord Kelvin, speaking to
the British Association for the Advancement of Science, 1900.
a.. "If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung
cancer, it seems to be a minor one." - W.C. Heuper, National Cancer
Institute, 1954.
[edit]
Bad predictions
Bad predictions in this case refers to predictions about future events,
enterprises, careers, etc. that proved to be wrong later.

[edit]
Future historical, social, and pop-cultural events
a.. "Four or five frigates will do the business without any military
force." - British prime minister Lord North, on dealing with the rebellious
American colonies, 1774.
a.. "Ours has been the first [expedition], and doubtless to be the last,
to visit this profitless locality." - Lt. Joseph Ives, after visiting the
Grand Canyon in 1861.
a.. "They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist-" - Last words of Gen.
John Sedgwick, spoken as he looked out over the parapet at enemy lines
during the Battle of Spotsylvania in 1864.
a.. "No, it will make war impossible." - Hudson Maxim, inventor of the
machine gun, in response to the question "Will this gun not make war more
terrible?" from Havelock Ellis, an English scientist, 1893.
a.. "I am tired of all this sort of thing called science here... We have
spent millions in that sort of thing for the last few years, and it is time
it should be stopped." - Simon Cameron, U.S. Senator, on the Smithsonian
Institution, 1901.
a.. "Man will not fly for 50 years." - Wilbur Wright, American aviation
pioneer, to brother Orville, after a disappointing flying experiment, 1901
(their first successful flight was in 1903).
a.. "The invention of aircraft will make war impossible in the future." -
George Gissing, 1903.
a.. "Sensible and responsible women do not want to vote." - Grover
Cleveland, U.S. President, 1905.
a.. "The coming of the wireless era will make war impossible, because it
will make war ridiculous." - Guglielmo Marconi, inventor of the radio,
Technical World Magazine, October, 1912, page 145.
a.. "You will be home before the leaves have fallen from the trees." -
Kaiser Wilhelm, to the German troops, August 1914.
a.. "Our country has deliberately undertaken a great social and economic
experiment, noble in motive and far reaching in purpose." - Herbert Hoover,
on Prohibition, 1928.
a.. "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -
Irving Fisher, economics professor at Yale University, 1929.
a.. "This is the second time in our history that there has come back from
Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our
time." - Neville Chamberlain, British Prime Minister, September 30th, 1938.
a.. "The Americans are good about making fancy cars and refrigerators, but
that doesn't mean they are any good at making aircraft. They are bluffing.
They are excellent at bluffing." - Hermann Goering, Commander-in-Chief of
the Luftwaffe, 1942.
a.. "It will be gone by June." - Variety, passing judgement on rock 'n
roll in 1955.
a.. "A short-lived satirical pulp." - Time magazine, writing off Mad
magazine in 1956.
a.. "We will bury you." - Nikita Kruschev, Soviet Premier, predicting
Soviet communism will win over U.S. capitalism, 1958.
a.. "In all likelihood world inflation is over." - International Monetary
Fund Ceo, 1959.
a.. "Reagan doesn't have that presidential look." - United Artists
Executive, rejecting Ronald Reagan as lead in 1964 film The Best Man.
a.. "And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris
in Vietnam" - Newsweek, predicting popular holidays for the late 1960s.
a.. "Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop-because women
like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to
change their minds." - Time, 1966, in one sentence writing off e-commerce
long before anyone had ever heard of it.
a.. "If anything remains more or less unchanged, it will be the role of
women." - David Riesman, conservative American social scientist, 1967.
a.. "It will be years - not in my time - before a woman will become Prime
Minister." - Margaret Thatcher, future Prime Minister, October 26th, 1969.
a.. "Read my lips: NO NEW TAXES." - George H. W. Bush, 1988.
a.. "This antitrust thing will blow over." - Bill Gates, founder of
Microsoft.
[edit]
Celebrities, athletes, and great artists and their works
a.. "I would say that this does not belong to the art which I am in the
habit of considering music." - A Oulibicheff, reviewing Beethoven's Fifth
Symphony.
a.. "If Beethoven's Seventh Symphony is not by some means abridged, it
will soon fall into disuse." - Philip Hale, Boston Music Critic, 1837.
a.. "I'm sorry, Mr Kipling, but you just don't know how to use the English
language." - The San Francisco Examiner, rejecting a submission by Rudyard
Kipling in 1889.
a.. "Taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him
into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard." - Tris
Speaker, baseball expert, talking about Babe Ruth, 1919.
a.. "By the year 1982 the graduated income tax will have practically
abolished major differences in wealth." - Irwin Edman, professor of
philosophy Columbia University, 1932.
a.. "Sure-fire rubbish." - Lawrence Gilman, reviewing Porgy and Bess by
George Gershwin in the New York Herald Tribune, 1935.
a.. "Just so-so in center field." - New York Daily News, after the
premiere of Willie Mays, 1951.
a.. "I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face, and not
Gary Cooper." - Gary Cooper, on declining the lead role in Gone with the
Wind.
a.. "You better get secretarial work or get married." - Emmeline Snively,
director of the Blue Book Modelling Modelling Agency, advising would-be
model Marilyn Monroe in 1944.
a.. "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -
Decca Records, when they rejected The Beatles, 1962.
a.. "The Beatles are not merely awful-I would consider it sacrilegious to
say anything less than that they are godawful. They are so unbelievably
horrible, so appallingly unmusical, so dogmatically insensitive to the magic
of the art, that they qualify as crowned heads of anti-music, even as the
imposter popes went down in history as 'anti-popes'." - William F. Buckley,
1964.
a.. "The singer (Mick Jagger) will have to go; the BBC won't like him." -
First Rolling Stones manager Eric Easton to his partner after watching them
perform.
a.. "The case is a loser." - Johnnie Cochran, on soon-to-be client O.J.'s
chances of winning, 1994.
[edit]
Entrepreneurs and their revolutionary ideas
a.. "...so many centuries after the Creation it is unlikely that anyone
could find hitherto unknown lands of any value." - Committee advising King
Ferdinand and Queen Isabella of Spain regarding a proposal by Christopher
Columbus, 1486.
a.. "Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil?
You're crazy." - Associates of Edwin L. Drake refusing his suggestion to
drill for oil in 1859.
a.. "No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour
when he can ride his horse there in one day for free." - King William I of
Prussia, on hearing of the invention of trains, 1864.
a.. "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn
better than a 'C', the idea must be feasible." - A Yale University
management professor in response to a college assignment by Fred Smith
proposing a reliable overnight delivery service, in 1966. Smith would later
go on to found Federal Express Corp.
a.. "A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports
say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you
make." - Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies.
a.. "So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing,
even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us?
Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come
work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and
they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -
Steve Jobs, founder of Apple Computer Inc., on his and Steve Wozniak's early
attempts to distribute their personal computer.
[edit]
Misattributed
a.. "Everything that can be invented has been invented." - Charles H.
Duell, Comissioner of the US Patent Office, 1899.
a.. Although most commonly attributed to him, (it has also been
attributed to anonymous US Patent Office employees of varying dates, as well
as British ones), there is no evidence that Duell ever held this opinion,
let alone stated it. [1]
a.. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas
Watson, chairman of IBM, on seeing the first mainframe computer in 1943.
a.. There is no evidence that Watson ever said this. See his Wikipedia
article for more information.
a.. "640 K ought to be enough for anybody." or "No one will need more than
640 kilobytes of memory for a personal computer." - Bill Gates, 1981.
a.. Bill Gates has denied saying either variation, and no verifiable
source is known.

[Jan Drew]

"Bryan Heit" > wrote in message
...
> Jan Drew wrote:
>> "All truth passes through 3 stages.
>>
>> First, it is ridiculed.
>>
>> Second, it is violently opposed.
>>
>> Third, it is accepted as being self-evident".
>> Shopenhauer
>
> But things which are not true only make stages 1&2. Which is where you
> and Joh have been stuck for a while...
>
> Bryan

Your ignorance is noted.

E OFFICIAL TRUTH
The following is a spontaneous e-mail growth, passed to me by Uncle Al.
Putting
it on www kills it, like putting the pin through the butterfly. There must
be
other ones still flitting around somewhere...

SEE THE BOOK " THE EXPERTS SPEAK", BY CERF/NAVASKY, PANTHEON 1984, FOR MORE
LIKE THESE.

OTHER SITES:
J. Talbot's "Skeptics" quotations
The Experts Speak
Against Excessive Skepticism
One-liners
"..so many centuries after the Creation it is unlikely that anyone could
find hitherto unknown lands of any value." - committee advising Ferdinand
and Isabella regarding Columbus' proposal, 1486

"I would sooner believe that two Yankee professors lied, than that stones
fell from the sky" - Thomas Jefferson, 1807 on hearing an eyewitness
report of falling meteorites.

"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil?
You're crazy." - Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his
project to drill for oil in 1859.

"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." - Pierre
Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the
intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." - Sir John Eric Ericksen,
British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria
1873.

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to
us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876. I'VE HEARD ONE REPORT THAT THIS
QUOTE WAS A HOAX, THE INTERNAL MEMO WAS A RECENT FORGERY

"Such startling announcements as these should be deprecated as being
unworthy of science and mischievious to to its true progress" - Sir
William Siemens, 1880, on Edison's announcement of a sucessful light bulb.

"We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy." -
Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1888

"Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody
will use it, ever." - Thomas Edison, 1889

"Everything that can be invented has been invented." - Charles H.
Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899. NO, THIS WAS A
MISQUOTE, HE NEVER SAID THIS. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER EVEN DEBUNKED THIS.

"The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have
all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the
possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new
discoveries is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be
looked for in the sixth place of decimals." - physicist Albert. A.
Michelson, 1894

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin,
president, Royal Society, 1895.

"It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two
or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying
machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere."
- Thomas Edison, 1895

"The demonstration that no possible combination of known substances, known
forms of machinery, and known forms of force can be united in a
practicable machine by which men shall fly for long distances through the
air, seems to the writer as complete as it is possible for the
demonstration of any physical fact to be." - astronomer S. Newcomb, 1906

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." - Marechal
Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

"Caterpillar landships are idiotic and useless. Those officers and men
are wasting their time and are not pulling their proper weight in the war"
- Fourth Lord of the British Admiralty, 1915, in regards to use of tanks
in war.

"Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and
reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against
which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily
in high schools." - 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert
Goddard's revolutionary rocket work.

"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who
would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" - David
Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the
radio in the 1920s.

"All a trick." "A Mere Mountebank." "Absolute swindler." "Doesn't know
what he's about." "What's the good of it?" "What useful purpose will it
serve?" - Members of Britain's Royal Society, 1926, after a demonstration
of television.

"This foolish idea of shooting at the moon is an example of the absurd
lengths to which vicious specialisation will carry scientists."
-A.W. Bickerton, physicist, NZ, 1926

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" - H.M. Warner, Warner
Brothers, 1927.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.

"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be
obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at
will." -- Albert Einstein, 1932

"The energy produced by the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who
expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is
talking moonshine" - Ernst Rutherford, 1933

"The whole procedure [of shooting rockets into space]...presents
difficulties of so fundamental a nature, that we are forced to dismiss the
notion as essentially impracticable, in spite of the author's insistent
appeal to put aside prejudice and to recollect the supposed impossibility
of heavier-than-air flight before it was actually accomplished." Richard
van der Riet Wooley, British astronomer, reviewing P.E. Cleator's "Rockets
in Space", Nature, March 14, 1936

"Space travel is utter bilge!" -Sir Richard Van Der Riet Wolley, astronomer

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas
Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." - Popular
Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked
with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a
fad that won't last out the year." - The editor in charge of business
books for Prentice Hall, 1957

"Space travel is bunk" -Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of
Britain, 1957, two weeks before the launch of Sputnik

"There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be
used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio
service inside the Unided States." -T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, 1961

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -
Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"But what... is it good for?" - Engineer at the Advanced Computing
Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken
Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.,
1977

"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn
better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible." - A Yale University
management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing
reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal
Express Corp.)

"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not
Gary Cooper." - Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading
role in"Gone With The Wind."

"A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports
say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you
make." - Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields'
Cookies.

"If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The
literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." -
Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3M
"Post-It" Notepads.

"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing,
even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about
funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our
salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we
went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You
haven't got through college yet.'" - Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve
Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve
Wozniak's personal computer.

"You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all
of your muscles? It can't be done. It's just a fact of life. You
just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable
condition of weight training." - Response to Arthur Jones, who solved
the "unsolvable" problem by inventing Nautilus.

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

[Rich]

"Jan Drew" > wrote in message
.com...

( bulk of post snipped for brevity )

>
> . . . to Arthur Jones, who solved
> the "unsolvable" problem by inventing Nautilus.
>
> "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981

Even if all these quotes were accurate, which is highly dubious, they would
prove an important point; that the scientific world recognizes and discards
its errors and progresses on to new and higher knowledge. The "alternative"
world, on the other hand, is still klinging onto failed ideas like
pleomorphism, homeopathy, chiropractic, and mesmerism.
--


--Rich

Recommended websites:

http://www.ratbags.com/rsoles
http://www.acahf.org.au
http://www.quackwatch.org/
http://www.skeptic.com/
http://www.csicop.org/

[john]

http://www.mrw.interscience.wiley.com/cochrane/clsysrev/articles/CD004407/pdf_fs.html


Fombonne is a psychiatrist. Here is what the Cochrane Collaboration
said about Fombonne's last paper regarding a review of the safety of
the mmr:
"The number and possible impact of biases in this study is so high
that interpretation of the results is impossible".
http://www.mrw.interscience.wiley.co...07/pdf_fs.html (page 21)

[Mark Probert]

john wrote:
> http://www.mrw.interscience.wiley.com/cochrane/clsysrev/articles/CD004407/pdf_fs.html
>
>
> Fombonne is a psychiatrist.

From Wikipedia (just to frost John's shorts) CHUCKLE!

Eric Fombonne, MD, FRCP, (b. 1954, Paris, France) is a professor of
psychiatry and an epidemiologist. Dr. Fombonne directs the child
psychiatry division at McGill University in Canada and the psychiatry
department at the Montreal Children’s Hospital, where he played a key
role in the launch of its autism clinic. Fombonne is also the Canada
Research Chair in child psychiatry. His research focuses on
epidemiological investigations of childhood mental illness and related
risk factors, with a particular focus on the epidemiology of autism.

Dr. Fombonne is a permanent member of a National Institute of Mental
Health (NIMH) study section and has been appointed to a special National
Institute of Health (NIH) advisory board for autism research programs.
In October, 2002 he became the president of the Association of Child and
Adolescent Psychiatry of Canada (APCAPC).

Sounds like he is just the person to conduct an epidemiological study of
Autism.